Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

Modelling the impact of climate change on miscanthus and willow for their potential productivity in Poland 

Author(s):

Magdalena Borzecka-Walker *, Antoni Faber, Jerzy Kozyra, Rafał Pudełko, Katarzyna Mizak, Alina Syp

Recieved Date: 2012-07-22, Accepted Date: 2012-10-04

Abstract:

One of the priorities for the Polish policy on anthropogenic global warming mitigation is increasing the area of agricultural crop production dedicated for energy purposes. The crops that are often most  considered  for this purpose are miscanthus and willow. According to previous research, the area dedicated for these crops could cover up to 1.59 M ha. This area is considerably limited by climatic conditions, water limitation factors and soil suitability. Furthermore in recent years, the frequency of drought conditions has been increasing during the summer, also most scenarios on climate change have predicted more precipitation during the winter as well as less precipitation during the summer. For these reasons, an evaluation into the impact of climate change on the potential productivity of willow and miscanthus using climate change scenarios is essential for decision-making proposes. The aim of this study was to determine the potential yield of miscanthus and willow in Poland for the current climate conditions and for climate change scenarios. For the modelling a DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model was used. The calculations in the DNDC model were done with a 99-year stochastic weather series characterised by a temporal climate (1971-2000), as well as scenarios describing climate conditions for 2030 and 2050. Simulations were conducted for the most typical soil types, suitable for willow and miscanthus production in Poland. The simulations for climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 showed a rather small but significant decrease in the yield level of willow and miscanthus in Poland, and a significant change in the potential C sequestration and reductions in the nitrous oxide emission level.

Keywords:

Climate change, miscanthus, willow, soil carbon, greenhouse gases, nitrates leaching, DNDC

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2012
Volume: 10
Issue: 3&4
Category: Environment
Pages: 1437-1440

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