Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

Research on the supply and demand of beef in China based on partial equilibrium model

Author(s):

Chun Yang, Ling Xin*

Recieved Date: 2016-01-16, Accepted Date: 2016-04-04

Abstract:

The beef prices in China have maintained growth for 14 consecutive years. In recent years, the beef supply and demand showed a tightly balanced pattern. The analysis of the historical supply and demand changes for Chinese beef is particularly important, in order to accurately grasp the future trends of beef supply and demand. In this study, a partial equilibrium model for beef cattle was constructed, based on data from 1979 to 2012, combined with the actual situation in the future development of the Chinese beef cattle industry. Two scenarios of urban and rural residents’ income growth and scale development were designed, and research was conducted regarding the beef supply and demand change trend in China in the future. The results illustrated that the supply and demand of Chinese beef from 2015 to 2025 would maintain a certain growth under different scenarios, of which the beef consumption and demand would increase significantly due to the circumstances of increases of income for urban and rural residents. Using scale development scenarios, the growth in beef production would accelerate significantly. It is also worth noting that the future beef trade would still exhibit a net import of status, producer prices, and consumer prices, as well as maintaining growth, and the supply and demand of beef will still maintain a tight balance pattern. Therefore, the promotion of beef production and supply in China remains an arduous task.

Keywords:

Partial equilibrium model, beef, change of supply and demand, forecast

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2016
Volume: 14
Issue: 2
Category: Agriculture
Pages: 126-132

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