Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

Responses of the climatic potential productivity of maize to climate change over the Songnen Plain: Study based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

Author(s):

Xiangjun Meng ^{1, 2}, Haibo Du ¹, Zhengfang Wu ¹*

Recieved Date: 2013-08-23, Accepted Date: 2013-10-15

Abstract:

Globalization studies have been focused on the analysis of the response of agricultural production to climate change. In this study, meteorological data from 21 stations in the Songnen Plain from 1961–2010, including daily average temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration, are used to investigate the response of the climatic potential productivity of maize to climate change using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis combined with the traditional method. The results indicate that climatic potential productivity is characterized by long-range power-law correlation. The overall climatic potential productivity of maize shows a non-significant decreasing trend over the Songnen Plain in the last 50 years. By contrast, the difference value between the photo-temperature and climatic potential productivity shows a significant increasing trend. In the last 25 years, the negative trend of the climatic potential productivity and the positive trend of the difference value between photo-temperature and climatic potential productivity for maize have both experienced sharp increases that are significant at the 0.05 confidence level. Water conditions have an important influence on the climatic potential productivity of maize over the Songnen Plain. The most sensitive periods of the response of climatic potential productivity of maize to climate change over the Songnen Plain are observed in July and September. During these periods, the rational distribution of water resources is particularly important, especially in the southern region of the Songnen Plain. The scaling exponents of the climatic potential productivity and the difference value between photo-temperature and climatic potential productivity series distort at large-scale range possibly because of the sudden change of signals at various scales or the limited sample sequence length. Therefore, a longer data series is needed for analysis.

Keywords:

Maize, climatic potential productivity, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, Songnen Plain

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2013
Volume: 11
Issue: 3&4
Category: Environment
Pages: 2201-2207

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