Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

Modeling on monthly maximum chloride content of Betna-Kholpatua River of Satkhira District in Bangladesh

Author(s):

Shaima Jannat, Most. Mira Khatun, Provash Kumar Karmokar, Dulal Chandra Nandi

Recieved Date: 2020-07-07, Accepted Date: 2020-09-18

Abstract:

Surface water salinity is a problem all over the country. About 30 percent of the cultivating land in coastal areas is affected by salinity at tidal flooding times. The rivers Betna and Kholpatua flowing through Shatkhira and Khulna areas are important in the south region of the country. These rivers continuously increase the surface water salinity by overflowing its bank that has been affecting the agricultural productivity of such areas. Although the electrical conductivity (EC) and chloride content (CC) caused the water salinity both for surface and ground water, the CC is more serious. Monthly maximum chloride in high tide (mmaxHT) has considered and has modeled using data of 33 years for the period of 1981 to 2013. An indication of having seasonality is noticed by time series plot of data which has confirmed by the formal HEGY test. Among the five fitted models, SARIMA(4,0,1) (0,1,1)6 was identified as the best fitted model for mmaxHT using the diagnostic tools and model selection criteria. The best fitted model for the surface water salinity was found as SARIMA(4,0,1) (0,1,1)6 formmaxHT. Finally we have predicted the water salinity parameter up to the year 2025. It is observed from the predicted value that although the predicted values are increasing within the time period from January to May but for June it decreases. This could be a message for the water development board and concerning authorities as well as the Bangladesh government for their policy implication to reduce the danger of salinity in the southwest region of the country.

Keywords:

Surface water, electrical conductivity, chloride content, Time Series Modeling, SARIMA

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2020
Volume: 18
Issue: 3&4
Category: Environment
Pages: 135-138

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