Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

GIS-based weight of evidence modeling of basic farmland protection planning for basic farmland suitability mapping 

Author(s):

Li-na Lv ¹, Xin-qi Zheng ¹*, Lu Zhao ², Ye-cui Hu ¹

Recieved Date: 2013-01-21, Accepted Date: 2013-04-28

Abstract:

The protection of farmland has become a leading concern influencing the actions of the Chinese government and people. Planning for basic farmland protection always breaks through to become a management problem, especially in a rapidly developing country like China. Demarcating basic farmland protection areas is still a challenge. This study introduces a method named as weight of evidence (WOE) using basic farmland data and related evidences to help solve problems related to selecting basic farmland for protection and is designed to assist land management planners in this process. This method analyzes farmland by overlaying spatial basic farmland data from different periods to designate training points indicating stable areas of farmland and combining related thematic maps to create a basic farmland planning map. Using the city of Jinan in Shandong Province as an example, data was selected and used to define basic farmland based on natural factors, locational factors and limiting farming conditions, and the results were used to demarcate basic farmland and to create proposals for farmland management and protection. The results were tested using a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve , and then compared with the current basic farmland protection planning system in use in Jinan to verify the rationality and feasibility of this method. This study demarcated an area as basic farmland if it had a posterior probability > 0.34. The results indicate the proposed area of potential basic farmland includes about 75% of Jinan’s total agricultural land. Tests of the accuracy of this method show the ROC curves’ overall accuracy is 92.53%. Compared with the currently enacted land management planning, the overall accuracy of the proposed basic farmland designation is 78.12%. The proposed method using training points mapped as a centric position in an area of farmland to represent the basic farmland which have not changed for more than 10 years and introducing the ‘weight of evidence‘ to demarcate basic farmland are feasible. The technical ideas and methods proposed in this paper can provide support for taking a fresh look at farmland protection planning and policy making. It will also help decision-makers optimize land allocation and make better land-use planning decisions. 

Keywords:

Basic farmland, data driven, land-use planning, planning redacting, weight of evidence

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2013
Volume: 11
Issue: 2
Category: Environment
Pages: 1087-1092

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