Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

An assessment of biomass production potential in Poland and impacts on food security

Author(s):

Alina Syp, Antoni Faber, Magdalena Borzęcka-Walker

Recieved Date: 2013-07-22, Accepted Date: 2013-10-20

Abstract:

In this paper, an assessment of biomass production potential in Poland in 2020 and 2030 was calculated. Two scenarios were defined, representing constraining attitudes towards available agricultural land, production system, diet change and population decrease. They are named as a baseline constant scenario (BCS) and future variable scenario (FVC). In BCS scenario, we assumed constant crop yields, consumption per capita, decrease of land use for no agricultural purposes, food reserves and loses, and no change of the current policy. Only a decline in population occurred. The FVC is a scenario were both crops yields and consumptions per capita are changed, based on linear trends. Other input data and changes are the same like in BSC scenario. In our study, in both scenarios self–sufficiency for production is assumed. Therefore, there is an absence of international trade in food and feed in the calculation. Based on our analysis, areas of agricultural land in Poland could possibly be made available for future biomass production for energy use. The accessible land areas increased when the potential food production became higher in comparison with the food requirements (dependent on a decreasing population and mean consumption pattern). This study shows that 79% of the present agricultural land area is needed for food production in 2020 and 73% in 2030 respectively, if the FVC is applied. The remaining 21% in 2020 and 27% in 2030 can be used for other purposes, such as biomass production. If the BCS is applied, then a smaller area is available for biomass production, e.g. 14% and 17% in 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Keywords:

Biomass production, food security, grain equivalents, population, production, scenarios

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2013
Volume: 11
Issue: 3&4
Category: Environment
Pages: 1721-1725

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